Potential Effects of Habitat Change on Migratory Bird Movements and Avian Influenza Transmission in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway

Wild waterbirds, and especially wild waterfowl, are considered to be a reservoir for avian influenza viruses, with transmission likely occurring at the agricultural-wildlife interface. In past few decades, has repeatedly emerged in China along East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF), where extensive habitat conversion occurred. Rapid environmental changes EAAF, distributional rice paddy agriculture, have potential affect both movements of migratory birds likelihood spillover To begin understand implications such may on waterfowl disease risk, we created dynamic Brownian Bridge Movement Models (dBBMM) based telemetry data. We used these dBBMM models create hypothetical scenarios that would predict distribution relative recent quantified through remote sensing. Our examined range responses which increased availability paddies drive use by decreased result use, predicted from empirical Results our suggested southeast China, relatively small decreases agriculture could lead dramatic loss stopover habitat, northeast increases should provide new areas can waterfowl. Finally, explored how changing transmission. results advance understanding threats incorporating real-world data predicts differences utilization over time.